The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has recently revised downwards its growth estimates for Italy, forecasting a GDP increase of 0.7% in 2024, a figure in line with the previous forecast but with a slight revision compared to the initial data. For the following two years, the outlook is even more limited: in 2025 growth is expected to be 0.7% (0.2 percentage points lower than the 1% forecast) and in 2026 growth is forecast at 0.9%, with a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous estimate of 1.2%. These revisions indicate that the Italian economy could face a period of weaker growth than initially expected, with a slowdown mainly linked to the persistent weakness of domestic demand.
Another important figure concerns inflation: the OECD predicts that, after 2023 characterized by a rate of 9.1%, inflation will fall to 5.3% in 2024, with a further slowdown to 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. This marks an improvement compared to the peaks recorded in previous years, but inflation remains above pre-pandemic levels, limiting the purchasing power of Italian households.
On the labor market front, despite an increase in employment, real wages remain below pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth is expected to be around 2% in 2024, but remains lower than the European average, accentuating the difficulty for many families to maintain their standard of living. The OECD has emphasized that structural challenges, such as the scarcity of investments in innovation and low competitiveness, continue to hinder the economic recovery.
At the same time, the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) has also revised its forecasts, expecting GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, values lower than previous forecasts. These adjustments suggest that, despite some economic stimulus measures, Italy may not be able to quickly return among the countries with the highest growth rates in the Eurozone.
These downward revisions, together with the persistent weakness of wages and the difficulty in recovering pre-pandemic economic levels, highlight the need for targeted economic policies. It is essential to adopt measures to stimulate domestic demand, promote investments in research and development, and foster long-term competitiveness. Furthermore, the challenge for the Italian government will be to create an environment favorable to sustainable growth, reducing economic inequalities and supporting a recovery that is more inclusive for all sectors of society.
